肯尼迪总统 1961年美国经济形势(企业篇)(下) -金沙娱场城app

1961年12月6日，肯尼迪总统在纽约市来到了美国制造商协会，并对与会的企业家演讲发表了本篇演说，谈及美国概念的经济形势。他在演讲中较为全面地介绍了自己的经济政策，包括加大企业税收、增加就业岗位、恢复财政平衡、限制资金流失、分摊安全本分与对外援助等等政策，并呼吁企业家稍安勿躁，配合政府的经济工作。这对我们学习和研究肯尼迪总统、乃至整个美国在60年代的经济政策都具有较高价值。

本篇讲话的对象为美国企业家，次日，肯尼迪总统将前往美国劳工联合会—产业工会联合会，再就经济形势对广大美国工人发表讲话。

注：本演讲篇幅较长，超出单个专栏字数上限，将分为上下两期发布。本专栏为下篇，请点击右边的目录表查看其他专栏。

and i emphasize this in saying again that i do not believe that exchange controls, based on the experience of the british and others, and our unique role as the banker of the world, would be either workable or helpful. but the recent flow of our capital to nations already fully developed has been a serious drain--in the shortrun--on our current balance of payments position. the eventual return from that capital is no help to us today. and at a time when we're hardpressed to pay for the maintenance of our forces in europe without unreasonably increasing our payments deficit and our gold outflow, i am sure you must realize that it makes no sense to be encouraging an exodus of capital through tax laws that were more appropriate at a time when europe was deficient in capital. you probably are familiar with these figures: in 1960, the long-term outward flow of capital funds was a billion, seven hundred million dollars. the return was two billion, three hundred million dollars, and therefore you might argue that we're getting more back than we're sending out. but when those figures are broken down, we see that the outward investment into the developed countries, such as western europe, was a billion, five hundred million dollars, and the return was only one billion dollars, a loss therefore in dollars and potentially in gold of a half a billion dollars to these countries, while in the underdeveloped countries where we would like to see american capital be invested, we took in one billion, three hundred million and invested two hundred million dollars.

我再次强调，根据英国等国的经验，我认为交易管控是无济于事的，而且考虑到我国扮演着世界银行，这种政策也是不切实际的。但近期我国资本流向其他发达国家，对美国经济造成了较为不利的影响——在短期内——影响了我国财政平衡。这些资金未来会回到我国，但这无法帮助我们解决今天的问题。如今我们迫切地需要在不扩大财政赤字和黄金外流的前提下维持住欧洲驻军，自然就不能使用那种鼓励资本外流的税法，那种法案应该是在欧洲陷入资金短时才颁布的。各位可能对这些以下数据再熟悉不过了：1960年，长期流往国外的资金是17亿美元。回流国内的资金是23亿美元，大家喜欢用这个数据说，我国实际上资金正在回流。但我们把这些数据拆开来看，我们外流资金中，有15亿都流入了西欧为主的发达国家，而回流资金中，我们只从发达国家收回了10亿美元资金，这算一算，我国资金损失达到5亿美元，这笔钱就可能需要我们用黄金来补偿，而对于欠发达国家，我们却希望资金流入这些国家，但是我们投入了2亿美元，却收回了13亿美元。

so that i would say, gentlemen, that all of the proposals which we will have to put forward in the coming months and years to try to bring this into balance--and i will say that we are going to reduce without weakening our defenses our expenditures for military purposes from three billion dollars to two billion dollars, we do have to use every available means that we have. and if this organization has suggestions as to how it may be done, we want to hear them. the best way, of course, is by increasing our exports.

先生们，所以我才说，我们未来几个月甚至几年的提案，都旨在恢复财政平衡——我也声明了，我们要在不削弱援助开支的情况下裁减开支，不能靠把军事援助额从30亿降到20亿来恢复收支平衡，我们并非为恢复财政平衡而不择手段。如果贵协会能在这一前提下，提出有益方案，我们洗耳恭听。当然，目前最好的办法就是扩大出口额。

fifth, and most important of all, we are seeking to increase our exports--and thus our surplus of exports over imports. i shall discuss our opportunities, but it is worth while recounting now that we have embarked on a stepped-up campaign of export promotion and trade fair exhibits--increased our agricultural exports--and to indicate the kind of problems that we're going to have, we send to western europe in agricultural exports nearly two billion dollars, which is one of our great dollar earners. we take in, in agricultural exports from europe, only about 80 million dollars, a balance of trade for us of nearly a billion, 920 million dollars. and yet, as the common market begins to get more and more developed, with all of these countries beginning to face surplus problems, there isn't any doubt that one of our most important problems in maintaining this kind of dollar flow would be to maintain the free flow of our agricultural commodities into the common market. there's going to be no more difficult task than that, and therefore we have to recognize that this, too, may affect our balance of payments.

第五，也是最重要的一点，我们希望扩大出口额——也就是实现贸易顺差。我应该谈一谈目前有何贸易机遇，不过我要先说明一下，我们已经开始鼓励出口，并多多举行贸易展览会——以扩大我国农业出口额——要理解未来的问题，我们就要先知道，美国向西欧出口了近20亿美元的农产品，这是我们的一大主要收入来源。而欧洲出口给美国的农产品只有8000万美元，贸易差额达到19.2亿美元。随着共同市场不断发展，全部国家都出现了产品过剩问题，毫无疑问，我们需要维持住当前的资金流向，就必须确保我国农产品在共同市场中自由流通。这是我国未来最艰巨的任务，我们必须直到它对我国收支平衡有重大影响。

we have broadened the export-import bank's loan guarantee system--created a new program of export credit insurance-and in a variety of ways sought to help you to keep american prices competitive. this requires--if we are to avoid the inflation that will price our goods out of the world markets-price and wage restraint by both industry and labor, and responsible budget policies by the government. it requires--if we are to offer modern products efficiently produced at a low cost--a higher rate of investment in new equipment, encouraged by the fullest use of existing capacity in a strong recovery, by the investment tax credit now pending before the house ways and means committee, and by the depreciation reform now under study and already put into effect on textile machinery.

我们要扩大美国进出口银行的贷款保障系统——推出新的出口信贷保险方案——通过多种途径帮助贵协会压低美国产品的价格，以强化贸易竞争力。如果我们不希望出现通货膨胀，不希望让我国的产品高于市场价——那么我们就需要企业和工人一起商定物价和工薪，需要政府推出合理的财政政策。如果我们希望高效生产，降低现代产品价格——我们就需要加大力度投资新设备，让众议院筹款委员会尽早通过目前的投资税抵免法案，还有目前正在研究、已经在纺织业生效的折旧改革，趁着当今经济复苏的浪潮，全力开发当前的产能。

this organization has taken a position against our tax credit, and the reason is that you do not feel it is sufficient and you support a much more general overhaul of our depreciation. i support that, too, but our tax credit will cost a billion, 800 million in our revenue. we have suggested--and i know this has been unpopular--certain taxes to make up that revenue, because quite obviously we cannot carry out a tax reduction, in these critical times, without budget problems as difficult as they are. therefore, while we would like, under ideal conditions, and had hoped, for example, to have a surplus this year before our additional expenditures for defense in july, it is very difficult for us to send up a broad tax depreciation scheme which might cost three billion dollars, with the expectation that other tax reductions would be added to it, at a time when we balance our budget with the greatest difficulty.

贵协会已经明确表达了对我们免税政策的反对，你们认为该政太过温和，你们希望实施更加全面的折旧改革政策。这个问题上，我和你们观点一致，但免税会让我国财政收入减少8亿美元。我知道大家不喜欢这个政策——但是为了得到更多收入，我们必须对部分项目进行征税，因为现在这么关键的时候，财政问题那么严峻，我们是不可能降税的。所以如果在理想情况下，比方说在今年7月提升军费前，我们实现了财政盈余，我们才可以实施这种政策，我们也希望如此，但是现在我国财政问题面临着巨大困难(译者注：原文的without应为笔误或口误，应该是with)，这种情况下，我们很难颁布高达30亿美元的大规模减税政策，甚至还在这一基础上添加其他减税措施。

so that we're not unsympathetic, and i can think of very few tax changes that would be more useful to the country in stimulating employment and keeping us competitive, particularly with western europe. and the only reason we have not gone further in it, and the only reason we have limited ourselves to the proposal which is now before the house ways and means committee, is because we do not have the available revenue to provide for a tax reduction this year.

所以并不是我们不理解你们，我确实想不出有什么其他税改方法，能促进我国就业，能让我国产品同外国产品相比，尤其是同西欧产品相比时更具竞争力。我们之所以没有采取更加激进的税改，我们之所以只提出了众议院筹款委员会正在审批的提案，就因为我们只需要这么多收入就能实现财政平衡。

so that i'm hopeful, in making your position known to the congress this year, that while you will continue to commit yourselves to depreciation changes--and as i say, we have made some progress in textiles-you will also recognize what our budgetary problems are, and work with us in attempting to get the best arrangements we can at this time, and plan for more satisfactory arrangements in the future.

所以我会将你们的观点转告国会，告诉他们，虽然我们已经在纺织业方面的改革已经取得一些成效——但是你们希望进一步折旧改革——你们也知道了我国的财政问题，且愿意与我们通力合作，在未来达成令双方都更加满意的结果。

in short, achieving a healthy equilibrium in our international accounts depends in part upon the cooperation of our allies-in part upon action by the congress--in part upon the self-discipline exercised by this administration in its executive and budgetary policies (and here i repeat my intention to submit a balanced budget in january)--and in part upon you and other members of the business community. (labor, too, has its responsibility for price stability, and i shall stress this tomorrow in addressing the aflcio.) i recognize that your efforts will be governed in part by the kind of atmosphere the government can help to create. that is why we intend to submit our balanced budget. the government must not be demanding more from the savings of the country, nor draining more from the available supplies of credit, when the national interest demands a priority for productive, creative investment--not only to spur our growth at home but to make sure that we can sell, and sell effectively, in markets abroad.

简而言之，如果想要实现国际收支健康平衡，我们就需要同盟友进行合作——这需要国会采取行动——这需要本届政府在治国理政、调整财政时约束自己（我再次重申，我希望明年一月份时，我能递交一份平衡的预算）——这也需要各位和其他企业协会的配合。（当然，工人也要为稳定物价做出贡献，明天我会去劳联—产联发表演讲，向他们强调这一点。）我相信，各位的企业能否成功，一定程度上取决于政府能否创造一个良好的氛围。所以我们才希望财政恢复平衡。当前，优先发展生产力、鼓励创业投资才有利于国家利益，所以政府不能透支国家的朱储蓄，也不能无节制地借贷——这既是为了刺激我国国内经济发展，也是为了让我国在国际市场能够有效交易。

but your own responsibility is great--and there are three things in particular that you can do: be competitive, through lower costs and prices and better products and productivity. be export-minded. in a very real sense, the british used to say they exported or died. we are going to meet our commitments. we've got to export. and we have to increase our exports, and however impressive it has been in the past, it must be better in the future for the security of this country.

但你们肩上的责任也是非常重大的——有三件事情是你们可以做的：一，降低成本和物价，提高产品质量和数量，从而增强竞争力。二，培养出口思维。正如字面意义所说，英国人曾说，他们要么出口，要么出殡。我们要信守承诺。我们需要出口。我们还需要增加出口量，无论我们已经取得了多么辉煌的成就，我们未来都必须更上一层楼，如此才能维护好我国国家安全。

and finally, be calm, in the sense of refraining from talk which really does not represent the facts, and which causes a concern about where we are going abroad. it is my hope that when we submit our balanced budget in january, that those who look at our fiscal situation from abroad and make their judgment, will recognize that we are in control, that we are moving ahead, and that the united states is a good bet.

最后，要保持冷静，也就是不要谈论某些尚未发生的事情，否则国外投资人就会感到恐慌。我希望我们能在明年1月份上交一份收支平衡的预算时，身处外国的投资人在看到我们的财政情况好转后，能够回心转意，能够意识到情况在我们的掌控之中，我们在稳中向好，来美国投资，能稳赚不亏。

all of us must share in this effort--for this in part, as i have said, is a part of the national security. and i don't want the united states pulling troops home because we're unable to meet our problems in other ways.

我们所有人都必须为经济发展出一份力——正如我此前所说，经济问题关乎我国国家安全。我不希望未来美国穷途末路，只能灰溜溜从海外撤军。

but we can be calm because our basic international position is strong--this year's deficit will be lower than last year's--our gold stores are large and the outflow is easing--we are going to make progress next year in diminishing it still further--we will submit a balanced budget--we are not undergoing a damaging inflation. we can, over the next few years, offset with the help of our allies a billion dollars, as i have said, of our $3 billion overseas defense outlays; reduce, with the help of the congress, the money which goes because of tax advantages; cut back still further that portion of our foreign aid procurement which is not already spent here; and take the other steps i have mentioned, including an increase in our exports, for which all the additional tools we need are well within our reach.

我们的国际地位稳固，所以不必惊慌——今年的财政赤字会有所好转——我们的黄金储蓄依然很多，黄金外流的趋势已经得到遏制——明年我们还会继续减小外流量——我们会递交上去一份收支平衡的预算——通货膨胀也已经得到控制。如我刚刚所说，未来几年，我们有了盟友的合作，可以让目前的30亿海外军事支出减少10亿美元；有了国会的帮助，我们可以堵住税收缺口，阻止资金外流；继续削减无偿的对外军事援助；并采取我所提到的，包括扩大出口在内的等等措施，我们完全有途径实现这一计划。

one of those tools--one which we urgently need for our own well-being--is a new trade and tariff policy. the reciprocal trade agreements act expires in june of next year. it must not simply be renewed-it must be replaced. if the west is to take the initiative in the economic arena--if the united states is to keep pace with the revolutionary changes which are taking place throughout the world--if our exports are to retain and expand their position in the world market--then we need a new and bold instrument of american trade policy.

其中一个途径——能够满足我国经济迫切需求的途径——就是颁布新贸易和关税法。明年6月，《互惠贸易协定法》就到期了。我们不能只是简简单单地续签这一法案——而是要颁布更好的法案。如果西方世界想要掌握经济主动权——如果在这一飞速变革的时代，美国不想居于他国之后——如果我们想维持并加强美国出口产品在世界市场中的地位——美国就得推出一份大胆的贸易政策。

for the world of trade is no longer the same. some 90% of the free world's industrial production may soon be concentrated in two great markets--the united states of america and an expanded european common market. our own example--of 50 states without a trade barrier behind a common external tariff--helped to inspire the common market. our support--ever since the close of world war ii-has been thrown behind greater european unity. for we recognized long ago that such unity would produce a europe in which the ancient rivalries which resulted in two world wars, for us as well as for them, could rest in peace--a europe in which the strength and the destiny of germany would be inextricably tied with the west--and a europe no longer dependent upon us, but on the contrary, strong enough to share in full partnership with us the responsibilities and initiatives of the free world.

因为世界的贸易情况已经非同往日。如今，自由世界90%的工业产值都集中于两大市场——美利坚合众国和欧洲共同市场。我国由50个州组成——内无贸易壁垒，对外统一关税——欧洲共同市场就是受我们启发应运而生。自二战结束以来——我们就大力支持欧洲走向联合。很早之前，我们就知道，只有发扬欧洲共同市场的这种联合精神，我们才能彻底消灭引发了两场世界大战、席卷了美国和欧洲的那种古老仇恨——只有欧洲走向联合，德国的力量和命运才会和西方世界牢牢绑定——只有欧洲摆脱对我们的依靠，只有欧洲强大起来，它才能与我们合作，帮助我们分担捍卫自由世界的责任，并为自由世界争取主动权。

now this new "house of europe" that we sought so long, under different administrations, is actually rising, and it means vast new changes in our outlook as well. with the accession of the united kingdom and other european nations to the common market, they will have almost twice as many people as we do--it will cover nations whose economies have been growing twice as fast as ours--and it will represent an area with a purchasing power which some day will rival our own. it could be--it should be--our most reliable and profitable customer. its consumer demands are growing--particularly for the type of goods that we produce best, for american goods not previously sold and sometimes not even known in european markets today. it is an historic meeting of need and opportunity; at the very time that we urgently need to increase our exports, to protect our balance of payments and to pay for our troops abroad, a vast new market is rising across the atlantic.

如今，我们长期以来期盼的“欧洲大家庭”正在各国政府的推动下，逐渐成为现实，这也将对美国的未来产生巨大影响。随着英国等一众国家加入欧洲共同市场，该经济体的人口已经是我国的两倍——其成员国的经济发展速度也是我们的两倍——这一地区的购买力未来也将能同我们抗衡。欧洲有能力——也应该成为我们最可靠、最互惠的贸易伙伴。其消费需求不断增长——他们需求量最大的产品又恰好是我们生产量最高的，他们需求那些此前从未进入欧洲市场、甚至闻所未闻的美国产品。需求与机遇在当代实现了历史性碰撞；跨大西洋新市场正在形成，所以现在我们要快马加鞭地扩大出口，维持收支平衡，维持我国海外驻军。

if, however, the united states is to enjoy this opportunity, it must have the means to persuade the common market to reduce external tariffs to a level which permits our products to enter on a truly competitive basis.

如果美国想抓住这次机遇，就必须想办法说服欧洲共同市场降低关税，允许我国产品进入欧洲市场而不丧失竞争力。

that is why a trade policy adequate to deal with a large number of small states is no longer adequate. for almost thirty years, the reciprocal trade agreements act has strengthened our foreign trade policy. but today the approaches and procedures provided for in that act are totally irrelevant to the problems and opportunities that we confront. its vitality is gone--a fresh approach is essential--and the longer we postpone its replacement, the more painful that step will be when it finally happens.

所以我们现在用于同大量小国家贸易的政策，已经无法满足新时代的需求。近30年来，《互惠贸易协定法》极大地推动了我国外贸政策。但今天，该法案已经完全无法应对我们面前的机遇与挑战。该法案已经丧失活力——我们必须推出一份全新法案——这份法案出台得越晚，我们付出的最终代价就越是惨重。

for this is no longer a matter of local economic interest but of high national policy. we can no longer haggle over item-by-item reductions with our principal trading partners, but must adjust our trading tools to keep pace with world trading patterns--and the eec cannot bargain effectively on an item-by-item basis.

因为它所关乎的不是某个地区的经济，而是整个国家的政策。我们不能再跟贸易伙伴就一个个具体的产品讨价还价，我们必须调整贸易模式，紧跟世界贸易发展——我们不可能跟欧洲经济共同体讨价还价。

i am proposing, in short, a new american trade initiative which will make it possible for the economic potential of these two great markets to be harnessed together in a team capable of pulling the full weight of our common military, economic and political aspirations. and i do not underrate at all the difficulties that we will have in developing this initiative. i am not proposing--nor is it either necessary or desirable--that we join the common market, alter our concepts of political sovereignty, establish a "rich man's" trading community, abandon our traditional most-favored-nations policy, create an atlantic free trade area, or impair in any way our close economic ties with canada, japan and the rest of the free world. and this, of course, is a problem of the greatest importance to us also. we do not want japan left out of this great market, or latin america which has depended so much on the european markets. it may find it now increasingly difficult because of competition from africa to sell in europe which could mean serious trouble for them and therefore for us in the long run both political as well as economic.

简而言之，我希望美国提出一份新的贸易倡议，来释放两大市场的经济潜能，并在此之上一起实现双方的军事、经济和政治愿景。当然，提出这么一份倡议绝非易事。我的这份倡议——不是说直接让美国加入西欧共同市场，先重新定义我国的政治主权，然后和他们一起成立一个“富有国家独属”的共同体，也不是想摒弃我国备受推崇的政治传统，去打造一个大西洋自由贸易区，损害我国同加拿大、日本和其他自由国家的亲密经济关系——这不是我设想的计划，也完全没有必要。这对我们是头等重任。我们不希望把日本排除在这个市场之外，也不希望非常依赖欧洲市场的拉美被拒之门外。而且非洲产品也越来越多地进入欧洲市场，如果我们不把他们拉入市场，那么从长期来看都几乎不会对我国政治和经济产生正面影响。

i am not proposing--nor is it either necessary or desirable--that in setting new policies on imports we do away altogether with our traditional safeguards and institutions believe we can provide more meaningful concepts of injury and relief, and far speedier proceedings. we can use tariffs to cushion adjustment instead of using them only to shut off competition. and the federal government can aid that process of adjustment, through a program i shall discuss further tomorrow--not a welfare program, or a permanent subsidy, but a means of permitting the traditional american forces of adaptability and initiative to substitute progress for injury.

我的这份提议——不是想希望彻底废除传统的安全保障——这不符合我的设想，也完全没有必要——但各机构认为，我们丰富灾祸和救济的定义，并且提高行事效率。我们可以用关税来缓冲贸易市场改革的影响，而不是使之成为阻止贸易的壁垒。联邦政府愿意资助市场改革——明天，我会更加具体地谈论这一改革计划——这并非福利计划，也不是永久补贴，而是利用美国人与生俱来的适应性和创新性，用进步手段战胜灾祸。

for obviously our imports will also increase--not as much as our exports, but they will increase. and we need those imports if other nations are to have the money to buy our exports and the incentive to lower their own tariff barriers. because nobody is going to lower their barriers unless the united states makes a bargain with them which they feel to be in their own economic interest. we need those imports to give our consumers a wide choice of goods at competitive prices. we need those imports to give our industries and defense establishments the raw materials they require at prices they can afford--and to keep a healthy pressure on our own producers and workers to improve efficiency, develop better products, and avoid the inflation that could price us out of markets vital to our own prosperity.

显然，我国的进口额也会上升——虽不如出口额增长速度快，但也会上升。如果我们希望其他国家有钱买我们的产品，希望其他国家对我们拉低关税，我们就也需要从他们那里购买产品。因为除非美国提出的交易有利于他们本国经济发展，否则他们是不会愿意拉低关税的。我们需要进口他国产品，靠竞争把价格压下来，给我国消费者更多的选择。我们需要进口他国产品，为我国工业和国防机构提供他们所需的低价原材料——同时还能给我们自己的生产商和工人上点压力，让他们工作更加高效、制作产品更加精细，防止发生通货膨胀，保持我国市场的活力与繁荣。

finally, let me make it clear that i am not proposing a unilateral lowering of our trade barriers. what i am proposing is a joint step on both sides of the atlantic, aimed at benefiting not only the exporters of the countries concerned but the economies of all of the countries of the free world. led by the two great common markets of the atlantic, trade barriers in all the industrial nations must be brought down. surely it will be said that the bold vision which produced the eec will fall short if it merely transfers european protectionism from the national to the continental level.

最后，我要郑重声明，我的提议不是要美国单方面降低关税。我的提议是让大西洋两岸共同行动，不仅要惠及各国的出口商，更是要推动整个自由世界的经济发展。大西洋两岸的共同市场齐头并进，我们要一起让所有工业国家拆除贸易壁垒。当然了，肯定会有人说，欧洲经济共同体无非就是，之前是一个国家搞贸易保护主义，现在是一个大陆一起搞贸易保护主义，所以它远远谈不上什么大胆方案。

but if we can obtain from the congress, and successfully use in negotiations, sufficient bargaining power to lower common market restrictions against our goods, every segment of the american economy will benefit. there are relatively few members of the business community who do not or could not transport, distribute or process either exports or imports. there are millions of american workers whose jobs depend on the sale of our goods abroad--making industrial sewing machines, or trucks, or aircraft parts, or chemicals, or equipment for oil fields or mining or construction. they may produce lubricants or resin; they may dig coal or plant cotton. in fact, the average american farmer today depends on foreign markets to sell the crops grown on one out of every six acres he plants--in wheat, cotton, rice and tobacco, to name but a few examples. our consumers, as mentioned, will benefit most of all.

但只要美国国会能够善用谈判，成功和欧洲共同市场达成共识，让它们降低对美国产品的限制，那么整个美国市场都会获益。毕竟在美国，应该没有几个是完全不受进出口影响的企业。我国产品还海外能否畅销，关系着亿万美国人民的工作——包括制造工业缝纫机、卡车、飞机零件、化学用品、油田、开矿和建筑设备。还有生产润滑剂或树脂的工人；挖矿和采摘棉花的农民。今天种植小麦、棉花、水稻和烟草等等作物的美国农民，他们每种植6英亩田地，其中就有1英亩的农产品需要靠国外市场消费。正如我刚才所说，这一倡议的最大受益群体，就是美国的消费者。

but if american industry cannot increase its sales to the common market, and increase this nation's surplus of exports over imports, our international payments position and our commitments to the defense of freedom will be endangered.

但美国企业不扩大向西欧共同市场的出口量的话，如果我国不能实现出口大于进口，那么美国的国际贸易地位就会岌岌可危，我国捍卫自由的承诺也难以维系。

if american businessmen cannot increase or even maintain their exports to the common market, they will surely step up their investment in new american-owned plants behind those tariff walls so they can compete on an equal basis--thereby taking capital away from us, as well as jobs from our own shores, and worsening still further our balance of payments position.

如果美国的企业家不扩大向欧洲共同市场的出口额，甚至维持现在的水平都做不到，那么欧洲就可以借助关税壁垒，加大对美国工厂的投资力度，在美国同我们公平竞争——从而让我们的资金外流，让我国失去工作岗位，收支平衡进一步恶化。

if american industry cannot increase its outlets in the common market, our own expansion will be stifled--the growth target of 50% in the sixties, adopted last month by the 20 nations of oecd for their combined gross national product, will not be reached-and our business-community will lack the incentives to lower prices and improve technology which greater competition would otherwise inspire. the industries which would benefit the most from increased trade are our most efficient--even though in many cases they pay our highest wages, their goods can compete with the goods of any other nation. those who would benefit the least, and are unwilling to adjust to competition, are standing in the way, as the nam economic advisory committee pointed out last year, of greater growth and a higher standard of living. they are endangering the profits and jobs of others, our efforts against inflation, our balance of payments position, and in the long run their own economic wellbeing because they will suffer from competition in the u.s. inevitably, if not from abroad--for, in order to avoid exertion, they accept paralysis.

如果美国的企业不扩大对欧洲共同市场的出口，我国企业规模就无非扩大——上个月，经合组织有20个国家定下目标，要在60年代内让他们的gdp总和增长50%，他们的目标也无非实现——我国企业就会失去动力，因为缺少竞争，产品的价格居高不下，技术也停滞不前。但扩大贸易的话，哪个企业最高效，就能挣得最多利润——虽然它们需要支付高额薪水，但它们的产品仍足以同他国竞争。而这个过程中亏损最严重的，就是那些不敢竞争、阻碍经济发展和人民生活水平提升的企业，正如你们制造商协会的经济咨询委员会所说的那样。这些企业会影响其他企业的利润和工作岗位，给我们反通货膨胀的工作徒增难度，让我们难以恢复收支平衡，且长期如此还会威胁他们自己的经济收益，因为他们不和外国企业竞争，就必须和美国国内企业竞争——既然怕累，那就只能坐以待毙。

finally, let me add, if we cannot increase our sales abroad, we will diminish our stature in the free world. economic isolation and political leadership are wholly incompatible. the united kingdom, faced with even more serious problems in her efforts to achieve both higher growth and reasonable balance of payments, is moving with boldness, welcoming, in the prime minister's words, "the brisk shower of competition." we cannot do less. for if the nations of the west can weld together on these problems a common program of action as extraordinary in economic history as nato was unprecedented in military history, the long-range communist aim of dividing and encircling us all is doomed to failure.

最后，我补充一点，如果我们不扩大出口额，我们在自由世界的威望就会受损。一个经济封闭的国家不可能在政治上领导他国。英国人面临的情况比我们更严峻，他们的经济发展问题和收支失衡问题更严重，但正如英国首相所说，他们依然勇敢选择“酣畅淋漓的竞争”。我们不能逊色于他们。只要西方国家能拧成一股绳，开展前所未有的经济合作，就像北约的军事合作一样，那么共产阵营慢慢分割、包围我们的计划就绝无成功的可能。

in every sense of the word, therefore, capitalism is on trial as we debate these issues. for many years in many lands, we have boasted of the virtues of the marketplace under free competitive enterprise, of america's ability to compete and sell, of the vitality of our system in keeping abreast with the times. now the world will see whether we mean it or not--whether america will remain the foremost economic power in the world--or whether we will evacuate the field of power before a shot is fired, or go forth to meet new risks and tests of our ability.

所以，既然我们谈论着这些问题，就说明资本主义受到了全面考验。多年以来，我们在世界各地宣扬自由企业、自由市场和自由竞争的优点，宣扬美国有多么强的竞争力、销售力，宣传我们的制度如何与时俱进。现在世界想看看，我们是否名副其实——美国还是不是世界最强的经济体——面对困难，我们是抱头逃窜的惊弓之鸟，还是敢迎难而上、挑战自我的勇士。

the hour of decision has arrived. we cannot afford to "wait and see what happens," while the tide of events sweeps over and beyond us. we must use time as a tool, not as a couch. we must carve out our own destiny. this is what americans have always done--and this, i have every confidence, is what we will continue to do in each new trial and opportunity that lies ahead.

现在，选择就在我们面前。时代的浪潮滚滚向前，我们不能“再等等看，观望一波”。我们必须利用时间，而不是被时间麻痹。我们必须自己书写命运。美国一贯如此——我相信，这一次，美国会一如既往地直面所有挑战，抓住所有机遇。

声明：本人仅按照原文翻译内容，演讲内容不代表本人观点。此专栏仅供历史和英语交流学习使用，任何读者皆可引用本人的译本。

希望来学习英语的观众明白：我觉得这些专栏的主要精华在于英语原文，而并非我的译本，我的译本很大程度上只是供来学习历史的观众使用的。本人的英语水平一般，翻译得并不会多么精彩，只能在你看不懂时来帮助你了解这些演讲内容最基本的意思，而且翻译时难免会出现差错，切勿直接完全以我的译本为标准。如发现有翻译错误或者歧义内容，欢迎指正。

希望来学习历史的观众明白：任何历史人物都有一定的局限性，随着时代发展，很多观点看法可能已经不再适用今天的世界，西方的观点也不一定适用于我们。通过了解这些演讲，仅可给我们提供一个更全面了解过去和世界的渠道。我们可以从优秀的历史、当代人物身上学到很多，但是请保持独立思考，理性看待演讲内容，切勿全信或将其奉为真理。